Who does precedent suggest will be the next Home Secretary?

With one of the more likely posts to be reshuffled thought to be the Home Secretary, and with much made of her inexperience, I thought it would be interesting to look at where her predecessors had come from, and their experience before becoming Secretary of State for the Home Department (its old-fashioned title).

In recent times, 2 Home Secretaries apiece have come from the post of Chief Whip (technically outside the Cabinet, Waddington and Smith, neither of whom seem to have made the transfer from backroom to great office all that well), Chancellor of the Exchequer (Maudling and Jenkins, but in both cases after being in opposition) and Northern Ireland (Hurd and Rees)

Surprisingly, the most likely springboard to Home Office is Education - Clarke, Blunkett and Clarke all made that transition.

There's not a ready explanation for this - Education and Home Office subjects are hardly all that similar; Thatcher aside and Education Secretaries haven't moved on to the other top posts - PM, Chancellor or Foreign. You could add to the total of Education Secretaries that bit further, by noting that Jack Straw, with no ministerial experience before getting the post, was his party's Education spokesman before getting the Home Office in opposition and then government. And Ken Baker, Major's first Home Sec, was a long serving Education Secretary before becoming his party chair. But counting those two would be cheating.

So, does this mean that the most unlikely prediction for a move in the next reshuffle is for Ed Balls to get the Home Office?