Sunday, October 28, 2012

The timings of resignations


Andrew Mitchell's resignation is the latest in a long series of resignations over the last 30 or so years.

Virtually every position in the Cabinet has had casualties of scandal, political differences or even simply personal decisions to move on in life; over the last 30 years. The only Cabinet posts I can find (various changes in the structure pof cabinet necessarily simplify this) exempt from the curse of unexpected resignation appear to be Health, MAFF/Defra, and Scotland. As most unexpected departures have been as a result of personal problems rather than political differences, it’s not as if these positions are somehow particularly unpolitical or uncontroversial and its this that marks them out.



The time of departure shown below, is of necessity an estimation, sometimes quite an extreme one, but is trying to capture if there is a particular pinchpoint in the weekly schedule that precipitates a resignation. There are really too many factors that are driving resignations to draw too many conclusions, but one factor that united quite a few is the role of PMQs in bringing things to a head (note that the days of PMQs changed from Tuesday and Thursday until 1997 when it reverted to the Wednesday pattern we’ve become used to) – whether the focus of PMQs made it clear that a minister couldn’t survive, or a wish to avoid them being the focus of the one bit of the political week that’s guaranteed to make political bulletins, doesn’t stand out quite as much.



The other, perhaps rather sad point to note, is quite how few of these departures are through political differences rather than some scandal or other; and how those handful of departures are big political characters. Lawson and Howe’s departure falling out with Thatcher over Europe, Heseltine and Brittain’s over Westland (itself a subtext for a row about Europe), and Peter Carrington’s over the Falklands (maybe that rare example of a minister taking responsibility for something that happened outside his direct control) were all over big political issues and were big political characters (maybe not Brittain but certainly the rest of them) in their own right.

 











PostNameReason for ResignationTime of WeekDate


Chancellor
Nigel LawsonPolicy

Thursday 1800


26 Oct 89


Foreign Secretary


Lord (Peter) Carrington


Policy


Monday 0900


5 April 82


Home Secretary


David Blunkett


Personal scandal


Wednesday 1800


15 Dec 04
DefenceLiam Fox

Personal scandal


Friday 1600


14th Oct 11
DefenceMichael Heseltine

Policy


Thursday 1100


9th Jan 86


Education
Estelle MorrisPersonal

Wednesday 1900


23rd Oct 02l
Trade & IndustryCecil ParkinsonPersonal scandalFriday 0700

14th Oct 83
Trade & IndustryLeon BrittainPolicy/ScandalFriday 1800

24th Jan 86
Trade & IndustryNicholas RidleyPersonal scandal

Saturday 1200


14th July 90
Trade & Industry Peter MandelsonPersonal scandal

Wednesday 1200


23rd Dec 98


Work & Pensions
Andrew SmithPersonal

Monday 2100


6th Sept 04


Work & Pensions
David BlunkettPersonal scandalWednesday 0900

2nd Nov 05


Work & Pensions
Peter HainPersonal scandal

Thursday 1600


24th Jan 08


Work & Pensions
James PurnellPolicy

Thursday 2200


4th June 09
CultureDavid MellorPersonal scandal

Thursday 1600


24th Sept  92
Local Government & TransportStephen ByersPersonal scandalTuesday 1400

28th May 2002
Northern IrelandPeter MandelsonPersonal scandal

Wednesday 1300


24th Jan 2001
WalesRon DaviesPersonal scandal

Tuesday 1700


27th Oct 98
WalesPeter HainPersonal scandal

Thursday 1600


24th Jan 08
Chief SecretaryDavid LawsPersonal scandal

Saturday 1800


29th May 10
Leader of the CommonsGeoffrey HowePolicy

Thursday 1800


1st Nov 90
Leader of the CommonsRobin CookPolicy

Monday 1200


17th March 03





    The list is necessarily very subjective and I may refine it on reflection. Was Charles Clarke simply removed from the Cabinet in a routine reshuffle, or was he sacked/resigned? Both Norman Fowler and Peter Walker left the Cabinet, both for wholly personal reasons, both at times outside of the normal reshuffle schedule but also calculated to be as low profile and easy for their Prime Minister as possible.

    Other obvious question marks about exclusion from the list above are people like Jonathan Aitken (maybe given how he went about his departure there is no-one ‘like’ Aitken) – I seem to remember quite clearly how he resigned during his famous ‘sword of truth’ press conference, but the records I can find imply he left office during a more routine reshuffle.